Battling to take on Reagan

Monday, Oct. 10, 1983 By GEORGE J. CHURCH
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Hollings, 61, gets off barbed one-liners (sample: Glenn "is trying to win by waving, but if the American people want a hand-waver, Reagan will win") and has a reputation in Washington as an intelligent and effective Senator; the rest of the nation seems unaware of it. Colorado Senator Gary Hart, 45, discusses issues thoughtfully but is short of money and has a weak organization; worse, he strikes some voters as arrogant. Former Florida Governor Reubin Askew, 55, might win the March 13 primary in his delegate-rich home state; he complains bitterly that he cannot get the press to pay attention to him anywhere else. George McGovern, 61, seems to be running more to win some attention for his blunt views ("Let's get out of Central America. Bring the Marines out of that religious war in Lebanon") than in any hope that Democrats will forget the disaster he led the party to in 1972.

Paradoxically, the candidate other than Glenn who worries the Mondale forces most is the one who is not yet formally in the race: Jesse Jackson, 42. The new Yankelovich survey put Jackson in fourth place with 5% of the vote. An August sounding by Atlanta's Darden Research Corp. showed 7.4% of the Democratic and independent respondents in nine Southern states choosing Jackson; nearly three-fifths of them would vote for Mondale if Jackson does not run. Glenn might win several of those states anyway, but to Pollster Claibourne Darden the meaning of his figures is clear: "If Jackson's in, Mondale's out" in the South.

For all that, there is one group of expert if not exactly impartial observers who are convinced that Mondale will win the nomination: Reagan's White House aides. It is not a prospect that displeases them, for most believe that Glenn would be more difficult to defeat because of his appeal to the all-important political center. "If Glenn is the candidate, Reagan won't have exclusive rights to motherhood and apple pie," says one Republican political consultant.

Reagan Pollster Richard Wirthlin lately has been insisting that Mondale would be a tough opponent too, because of his following among traditional Democratic groups, such as union members and Jewish voters, who defected to Reagan in large numbers in 1980. In addition, while blacks are likely to vote against Reagan in any case, a Mondale candidacy might bring more of them to the polls than a Glenn campaign would. Wirthlin's talk, however, seems at least partly designed to guard against Republican overconfidence and avoid having the White House give Glenn's candidacy a backhand boost.

Whichever Democrat wins, he will face a hard campaign. Much depends, of course, on the state of the economy, the climate in foreign relations and other imponderable factors. But Reagan's standing in the polls has been rising with the economic recovery, and he daunts Democratic pros more than any other Republican since Eisenhower. Whichever Democrat survives the nine innings of the primary season may find himself pitching next season to the Republicans' best hitter, probably with the bases loaded. Getting there may be half the fun. —By George J. Church. Reported by Christopher Ogden/Chicago, Evan Thomas/ Washington and Jack E. White/New York

With reporting by Christopher Ogden, Evan Thomas, Jack E. White